DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/05 10:49

   Grains Seeing Gains Midday Friday

   Corn is 6 to 8 cents higher, soybeans are 12 to 13 cents higher and wheat is 
2 to 3 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 90 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.40 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer 
with crude up $1.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold down $6.00.

   CORN:

   Corn trade is 6 to 8 cents higher at midday Friday with active range-bound 
action continuing as we head towards the weekend. Spread action is remaining 
firm. Ethanol margins are seeing support from energy values and rising world 
ethanol prices, as well as spring driving demand. The daily export wire has 
remained quiet for the most part this week. Basis should remain sideways short 
term as warmer weather will help move grain to town with near-harvest pace of 
inbound bushels in some areas. Double-crop planting in Brazil is well underway 
as well but behind the usual pace. On the May contract, resistance is the 
20-day at $5.45, which we have struggled to challenge this week, with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $5.29 as support, which we bounced off overnight.

   SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are 12 to 13 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing off a test 
of support. Spread action is solid as trade continues to work the upper end of 
the range after failing to extend gains on Thursday. Meal is narrowly mixed and 
oil is 0.90 cent to 1.00 cent higher. Basis will likely remain flat at strong 
levels with slower movement as the export program winds down and a bigger focus 
is on crush margins heading into spring. Brazil should remain rainy in the 
short term for most with shipments building up steam and a record long line of 
ships to load. Argentina is remaining mostly dry short term. The May chart has 
resistance at the recent high at $14.45, with support the 20-day at $13.92.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with range-bound action 
continuing short term. Trade is looking for a spark from weather to regain 
momentum along with further support from the row crops. The dollar is just 
below 92 points on the index, getting back to the upper end of the range. 
Further consolidation is needed at the upper end of the range with concerns on 
the Fed fighting inflation triggering a bit a flight to safety action. The 
Plains should see warmer weather, bringing the crop closer to exiting dormancy 
soon with some dry pockets persisting and spotty light rains possible. KC is at 
30-cent discount to Chicago and Minneapolis is at a 15-cent discount. KC May 
chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $6.09, with resistance the 20-day 
at $6.35, which we are just below.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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